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Post by nickandnora on Tue 24 Dec 2019, 2:33 pm

I think this box office journey is going to be really weird and interesting and right now I'm predicting it's going to end in a near draw. The weekend was obviously really comparatively low, but reports are saying it's holding pretty steady with Monday numbers and today's estimates. Of course the other factor here is the time of year and the timing of school being out (ie. more people had time to see it yesterday) and also with it having relatively little competition. I used to follow box office pretty closely way back in the day, so I'm curious about all this.

Thoughts? I don't want it to do poorly because it contains canon Reylo, but I also don't think it's a very good film, so...


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Post by motherofpearl1 on Tue 24 Dec 2019, 3:00 pm

It's awful , but if it wasn't that it might affect John and Daisy's careers, I would like it to tank.

I could forgive the shaky plot, the corn, the bad editing, if it was still uplifting. But it isn't.
As a kid being bullied at school I found an escape in these films. But now......
The Skywalkers are extinct. Han is gone. Rey is no substitute.

They have done something unforgivable. They've made SW depressing.
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Post by spacebaby45678 on Tue 24 Dec 2019, 4:34 pm

I have seen the hold for Monday, and the increase for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day..

I predict it will drop like a hot rock after that..maybe more than 56 percent come Friday and Saturday
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Post by SW_Heroine_Journey on Tue 24 Dec 2019, 4:57 pm

I crossed paths with a number of people at work who have not seen it yet, and some volunteered that they told people who have seen it yet (and they interjected with me - the same applies), paraphrasing - Don't tell me what happens, not yet spoiled, and know critics don't like it, want to see it for myself and decide.

So, the increase numbers yesterday, today, and tomorrow are probably for that reason. Afterwards, probably true word of mouth/repeat viewing will take effect.

The general audience is still voting - polls are still open. lol Very Happy Smile

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Post by OrionStars on Tue 24 Dec 2019, 7:06 pm



TLJ number
TROS Box Office Thread XLPAz1u


TROS number
TROS Box Office Thread ISMBq7O



TLJ's BO number increased by 55.8% on Christmas day
TROS Box Office Thread Rw2cnFL


while TROS continues to drop
TROS Box Office Thread Z7o6JEF
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Post by SW_Heroine_Journey on Tue 24 Dec 2019, 9:29 pm

Boxoffice Pro is predicting that TRoS will overtake TLJ this weekend.

If this happens, then either the GA does enjoy TRoS more than TLJ (selfish grr, but it is what it is)

OR

the GA is taking their time over the holidays (which probably includes next week too) to see the movie for the first time, and the dropoff will not occur (where TLJ overtakes TRoS again) until the week of January 6th.  

No immediate answers, unfortunately.

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-forecast-star-wars-the-rise-of-skywalker-chases-85-100m-second-frame-could-overtake-the-pace-of-last-jedi-can-little-women-break-out/
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Post by special_cases on Tue 24 Dec 2019, 9:42 pm

TROS has a little benefit of timing, with opening later and holidays on non-weekend. All is matter what legs will it have after Thursday. It can drop very dramatically or completely improve situation.
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Post by nickandnora on Wed 25 Dec 2019, 12:07 am

Right now I'm thinking the two films (TLJ and TRoS) are going to approximately tie and that info will tell no one nothing at all either way, lol.

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Post by motherofpearl1 on Wed 25 Dec 2019, 12:40 am

Cr**p unfortunately doesn't always equal box office failure, some dire films have often been big hits. But the reason I hope this film isn't the megahit most SW films are isn't so much because of the poor storytelling.
It's because of the shameful way they treated Adam, essentially throwing his character away to push Rey in a manner that did her character no favours and ended up turning her into an ideal of woman that's actually poisonous.
It's because of how they treated Kelly, because I will NEVER forgive them for reducing her role to practically nothing.
And most of all, they gushed about how this film was 'hopeful'and'satisfying'and it ended up almost destroying my Christmas with it's gloomy downbeat ending. How on earth can a film which ends the greatest science fiction/galactic fantasy saga ever by killing off the last Skywalker be 'hopeful'and'satisfying'? To have the nerve to think giving a completely new character the Skywalker name will make up for that is arrogant beyond belief. Especially when it does her no favours at all.
I want those responsible to realise the terrible mistake they have done. And I suspect that they will. Because even if this film is financially successful the following spin off projects won't be.

Lord, I'm ranting again. But I'm still reeling from that awful ending.
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Post by Kyla Ren on Wed 25 Dec 2019, 1:02 am

@motherofpearl1 wrote:Cr**p unfortunately doesn't always equal box office failure, some dire films have often been big hits. But the reason I hope this film isn't the megahit most SW films are isn't so much because of the poor storytelling.
It's because of the shameful way they treated Adam, essentially throwing his character away to push Rey in a manner that did her character no favours and ended up turning her into an ideal of woman that's actually poisonous.
It's because of how they treated Kelly, because I will NEVER forgive them for reducing her role to practically nothing.
And most of all, they gushed about how this film was 'hopeful'and'satisfying'and it ended up almost destroying my Christmas with it's gloomy downbeat ending. How on earth can a film which ends the greatest science fiction/galactic fantasy saga ever by killing off the last Skywalker be 'hopeful'and'satisfying'? To have the nerve to think giving a completely new character the Skywalker name will make up for that is arrogant beyond belief. Especially when it does her no favours at all.
I want those responsible to realise the terrible mistake they have done. And I suspect that they will. Because even if this film is financially successful the following spin off projects won't be.

Lord, I'm ranting again. But I'm still reeling from that awful ending.
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I agree 100%.  How is that ending hopeful and satisfying in any way, shape, or form?  They undid the happy ending of ROTJ, killed off all the blood Skywalkers, and stuck Rey alone on a desert planet just like she was at the start of the trilogy.

I just can't believe they went from TFA, which was such a great movie and such a promising start to this new trilogy with so many interesting ideas and possibilities to the complete and utter mess with the bleak and completely UNSATISFYING ending that is TROS.  I've been ranting pretty much nonstop about this, both online and off, ever since last week and I will probably continue to do so for quite some time because I am completely disgusted by what they did.  I just don't understand what happened.  I really don't. Sad  And I'm still trying to process this whole thing. Sad
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Post by motherofpearl1 on Wed 25 Dec 2019, 1:18 am

Your description of TFA as promising is spot on.
Although it did borrow from ANH in some parts, there was much enjoy, from a stormtrooper turning 'good', to a heroine who was a nondescript person on a nondescript planet rather than a galactic princess, and of course Kylo Ren.
TLJ broke new ground with a film that made you think long after the final credits and superb performances from Mark and Adam.
TROS smacked of the makers thinking:, okay, let's completely destroy what we've created just because we can. And we have a theme park to promote, don't want to be bothered with those pesky moviegoers. Han na na na na!
I blame JJ, but I wonder if it's really his fault?
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Post by Kyla Ren on Wed 25 Dec 2019, 1:36 am

@motherofpearl1 wrote:Your description of TFA as promising is spot on.
Although it did borrow from ANH in some parts, there was much enjoy, from a stormtrooper turning 'good', to a heroine who was a nondescript person on a nondescript planet rather than a galactic princess, and of course Kylo Ren.
TLJ broke new ground with a film that made you think long after the final credits and superb performances from Mark and Adam.
TROS smacked of the makers thinking:, okay, let's completely destroy what we've created just because we can. And we have a theme park to promote, don't want to be bothered with those pesky moviegoers. Han na na na na!
I blame JJ, but I wonder if it's really his fault?
@motherofpearl1

I think the main problem is that they didn't plan the whole trilogy out from the beginning.  I think it's fine to have several different writers and directors as long as everyone is on the same page and/or you have someone in charge of supervising the entire overarching story so that if someone decided they wanted to just abandon certain plot points or story lines and veer off in another direction, the person in charge would put their foot down and say no.

As far as blame goes, I don't know who to blame.  I mean, my guess would be that if TPTB didn't like what JJ was doing for whatever reason, they would have the power to tell him to make changes, even major changes, late in the game.  Maybe JJ wasn't happy with how the movie turned out.  Maybe a lot of stuff he wanted to include in the movie ended up on the cutting room floor.  I just don't know what to think anymore.  Maybe some day we'll find out the whole story.  But for now I guess all we can do is speculate.
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Post by Saracene on Wed 25 Dec 2019, 1:52 am

The happy ending is obviously that Rey is now a Girl Boss with a cool new lightsaber Rolling Eyes

I’ll be watching the financial performance of TRoS with interest and mixed feelings, I have to say. If it underperforms you just know that it will give more ammunition to the “TLJ killed SW” narrative and no real lessons will be learned by Disney anyway, plus I don’t know if I actually want the final Rey and Kylo movie to fail, especially when Ben Solo is clearly winning over so many people. And then the disappointed part of me just goes, burn burn burn and crash please.
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Post by SW_Heroine_Journey on Wed 25 Dec 2019, 7:46 am

@nickandnora wrote:Right now I'm thinking the two films (TLJ and TRoS) are going to approximately tie and that info will tell no one nothing at all either way, lol.
@nickandnora

If they tie, it selfishly tells me that if Ben lived, TRoS would have won the tie! Very Happy Razz
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Post by rawpowah on Wed 25 Dec 2019, 9:41 am

I will be following the box office with great interest.
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Post by OrionStars on Sat 28 Dec 2019, 5:42 am

I haven't checked BO for a few days and sith has turned upside down real quick. Christmas Eve boosted the BO number as people expected but the BO number has dropped like a stone the following day.
TROS Box Office Thread CsgS1hb

The BO community is starting to panic because they didn't dare to think that TROS can break the box office tradition of how a trilogy performs at the box office. I'm still reading their comments but I agree with this explanation a lot.

TROS Box Office Thread KTqOvkW


LFL made the biggest mistake of this decade when they chose to betray their new loyal fans. The truth is ST haters would never repeat viewing or don't care to watch TROS at the theater. And now even the fans who love the sequel don't give a sith about TROS anymore. GA seems to like TROS at first but they have no desire to watch TROS again because the more they think about TROS, the more they realize the plot of TROS is so stupid.

I think it's obvious that the Mouse wanted to turn TROS into an event like Avengers Endgame and they wanted TROS to archive at least $2 billion (again), so they brought JJ back at all costs. However, according to the current BO report about how TROS is performing, this film can't be able to archive $2 billion. The latest prediction about TROS's box office is this film will barely reach $1 billion (the most realistic number is it will reach around $950 million), but as usual, the mouse will force US theater chains to keep showing TROS so they can save face and reach $1 billion.
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Post by SW_Heroine_Journey on Sat 28 Dec 2019, 10:39 am

Revision to the box office forecast.  As @OrionStars indicated, the movie is slowing down.

Originally, there was thought it would overtake TLJ by Day 10 (this Sunday) US/Canada.  Now, it is forecasted to be below it - $365.8M TROS, in comparison to $368.2.  If this happens, this is huge because we're still in the Holiday timeframe.  

So, it seems the GA has concluded with their viewings/votes, and thought, "It's OK" but not enough for repeat viewings (or a lot of them), and as for SW fans - the ones that were most excited (Reylos/Bendemptionists) are meh about repeat viewings, so...now..DLF will pay attention to us - our tweets, etc as a form of market research as to why the movie did not do better.  

TROS was to please the TLJ haters but a lot of them refused to see TRoS because of their boycott, or if they did - they aren't going to see it a lot, they will find things to complain about with the movie.

International BO will not help them because the movie is already making more domestic vs international - and it would have done better with a romantic HEA.  

I really think DLF thought they had a Titanic type-concept for all audiences, but they forgot, they were romantically reunited in the spiritual realm at the conclusion of the movie.  

Deadline article link - https://deadline.com/2019/12/star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-little-women-uncut-gems-spies-in-disguise-post-christmas-box-office-1202817539/

Comparison link https://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdown/sd2117858820/?metric=grossToDate&view=byDayNum
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Post by nickandnora on Sat 28 Dec 2019, 10:51 am

Oh man, the insider guy on Box Office Theory (I'm not going to link to him, just trust me that he's accurate) basically said that Saturday's numbers are even WORSE than Friday's. This movie might not even clear 70 million this weekend, which is insanity. The Cinemascore and anecdotal accounts of kids being upset and theaters being quiet might have ACTUALLY accurately predicted legitimate word of mouth.

@SW_Heroine_Journey wrote:So, it seems the GA has concluded with their viewings/votes, and thought, "It's OK" but not enough for repeat viewings (or a lot of them), and as for SW fans - the ones that were most excited (Reylos/Bendemptionists) are meh about repeat viewings, so...now..DLF will pay attention to us - our tweets, etc as a form of market research as to why the movie did not do better.

This. They can spin the TLJ narrative all they want, but with drop-offs like this, the CinemaScore and bad reviews, if they ACTUALLY want to do better in the future, they need to listen to why this movie (THIS MOVIE, not TLJ) failed. I hope "Reylos" and other like-minded people on social media are able to do something with this. It is everyone's opportunity right now in the next coming weeks.

I didn't want this movie to fail because it actually contains canon Reylo, so I hope they don't try to spin it that THAT was the reason audiences were not responsive. But I just saw that some artist on twitter made 100 limited edition prints of the Reylo kiss that he made, and they sold out in FOUR MINUTES. Disney/LF needs to get their head out of the sand and realize where there money WOULD have been coming from.

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Post by unicorn on Sat 28 Dec 2019, 11:04 am

@SW_Heroine_Journey wrote:Revision to the box office forecast.  As @OrionStars indicated, the movie is slowing down.

Originally, there was thought it would overtake TLJ by Day 10 (this Sunday) US/Canada.  Now, it is forecasted to be below it - $365.8M TROS, in comparison to $368.2.  If this happens, this is huge because we're still in the Holiday timeframe.  

So, it seems the GA has concluded with their viewings/votes, and thought, "It's OK" but not enough for repeat viewings (or a lot of them), and as for SW fans - the ones that were most excited (Reylos/Bendemptionists) are meh about repeat viewings, so...now..DLF will pay attention to us - our tweets, etc as a form of market research as to why the movie did not do better.  

TROS was to please the TLJ haters but a lot of them refused to see TRoS because of their boycott, or if they did - they aren't going to see it a lot, they will find things to complain about with the movie.

International BO will not help them because the movie is already making more domestic vs international - and it would have done better with a romantic HEA.  

I really think DLF thought they had a Titanic type-concept for all audiences, but they forgot, they were romantically reunited in the spiritual realm at the conclusion of the movie.  

Deadline article link - https://deadline.com/2019/12/star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-little-women-uncut-gems-spies-in-disguise-post-christmas-box-office-1202817539/

Comparison link https://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdown/sd2117858820/?metric=grossToDate&view=byDayNum
@SW_Heroine_Journey

The bolded.
AND they had at least some fun together,
AND they had a life before with at least some good moments and friends,
AND lets be honest, this relationship had never worked in every day life for these two.

In comparison to Ben - Rey: literally soulmates, more existing than living, ONE kiss, not shown to be togehter in any form, bei it as epiloge, post credit, anything. Sad

It´s obviously a copy paste from Titanic, but again with no clue why it worked there and didn´t work in TROS.

EDIT:
I always understood Titanic the way, that Jack Dawson was the father of Rose´s child, no? THATS a bittersweet ending for me. It´s sad but still has something comforting at the end.
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Post by SW_Heroine_Journey on Sat 28 Dec 2019, 11:17 am

@nickandnora wrote:Oh man, the insider guy on Box Office Theory (I'm not going to link to him, just trust me that he's accurate) basically said that Saturday's numbers are even WORSE than Friday's. This movie might not even clear 70 million this weekend, which is insanity. The Cinemascore and anecdotal accounts of kids being upset and theaters being quiet might have ACTUALLY accurately predicted legitimate word of mouth.

@SW_Heroine_Journey wrote:So, it seems the GA has concluded with their viewings/votes, and thought, "It's OK" but not enough for repeat viewings (or a lot of them), and as for SW fans - the ones that were most excited (Reylos/Bendemptionists) are meh about repeat viewings, so...now..DLF will pay attention to us - our tweets, etc as a form of market research as to why the movie did not do better.

This. They can spin the TLJ narrative all they want, but with drop-offs like this, the CinemaScore and bad reviews, if they ACTUALLY want to do better in the future, they need to listen to why this movie (THIS MOVIE, not TLJ) failed. I hope "Reylos" and other like-minded people on social media are able to do something with this. It is everyone's opportunity right now in the next coming weeks.

I didn't want this movie to fail because it actually contains canon Reylo, so I hope they don't try to spin it that THAT was the reason audiences were not responsive. But I just saw that some artist on twitter made 100 limited edition prints of the Reylo kiss that he made, and they sold out in FOUR MINUTES. Disney/LF needs to get their head out of the sand and realize where there money WOULD have been coming from.
@nickandnora

So much money! The GA and Reylos/Bendemptionists would have seen it many times by now. Heck, I would have been on my 5th or 6th viewing by now.

With the International audience, they may have even had the China box office because of the romantic HEA. Asian audiences have no issues with living redemption arcs, and they love enemies to lovers.
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Post by SW_Heroine_Journey on Sat 28 Dec 2019, 11:21 am

@unicorn wrote:
@SW_Heroine_Journey wrote:Revision to the box office forecast.  As @OrionStars indicated, the movie is slowing down.

Originally, there was thought it would overtake TLJ by Day 10 (this Sunday) US/Canada.  Now, it is forecasted to be below it - $365.8M TROS, in comparison to $368.2.  If this happens, this is huge because we're still in the Holiday timeframe.  

So, it seems the GA has concluded with their viewings/votes, and thought, "It's OK" but not enough for repeat viewings (or a lot of them), and as for SW fans - the ones that were most excited (Reylos/Bendemptionists) are meh about repeat viewings, so...now..DLF will pay attention to us - our tweets, etc as a form of market research as to why the movie did not do better.  

TROS was to please the TLJ haters but a lot of them refused to see TRoS because of their boycott, or if they did - they aren't going to see it a lot, they will find things to complain about with the movie.

International BO will not help them because the movie is already making more domestic vs international - and it would have done better with a romantic HEA.  

I really think DLF thought they had a Titanic type-concept for all audiences, but they forgot, they were romantically reunited in the spiritual realm at the conclusion of the movie.  

Deadline article link - https://deadline.com/2019/12/star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-little-women-uncut-gems-spies-in-disguise-post-christmas-box-office-1202817539/

Comparison link https://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdown/sd2117858820/?metric=grossToDate&view=byDayNum
@SW_Heroine_Journey

The bolded.
AND they had at least some fun together,
AND they had a life before with at least some good moments and friends,
AND lets be honest, this relationship had never worked in every day life for these two.

In comparison to Ben - Rey: literally soulmates, more existing than living, ONE kiss, not shown to be togehter in any form, bei it as epiloge, post credit, anything. Sad

It´s obviously a copy paste from Titanic, but again with no clue why it worked there and didn´t work in TROS.

EDIT:
I always understood Titanic the way, that Jack Dawson was the father of Rose´s child, no? THATS a bittersweet ending for me. It´s sad but still has something comforting at the end.
@unicorn

Hmm, I never thought of it that way because she said "Your grandpa never knew about him" so, I took it at face value. Then again, she was probably trying to avoid drama with her granddaughter. lol

If the movie ended with Rey and Ben in the World Between Worlds...a SW mirror of the conclusion of Titanic, that would have been wonderful for the GA, and many of us too!

The movie's conclusion was so...flat...I really tried watching it through GA eyes, and that would have maybe been enough for 1 more viewing, but a lot? Nope.
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Post by Riri on Sat 28 Dec 2019, 11:34 am

If only JJ and Terrio listened to George Lucas huh?

TROS Box Office Thread 9ed25910

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Post by unicorn on Sat 28 Dec 2019, 11:41 am

@SW_Heroine_Journey

Maybe my cheesy Titanic headcanon, whatever. Laughing

I also had watched it at least 5 - 6 times in cinema, with a better outcome for Ben and Rey, despite all it´s flaws.
And there would have been so many possibilities for a better ending.
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Post by motherofpearl1 on Sat 28 Dec 2019, 11:59 am

Exactly.
Even if the film wasn't very good, a happy ending would have made it more watchable.
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Post by cherrylipstick on Sat 28 Dec 2019, 12:00 pm

It's insane that a movie like Titanic, that always made me cry with its second half, still manages to be happier and more hopeful than a SW movie Laughing How in the world!
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